This Sunday is my "big race" for the year, the Celebration Half-Marathon. While not as prepared as I'd like to be, I'm definitely more prepared than I was last year for my first ever HM. No more time left for training runs, so now I'm trying to decide which pace to aim for.
A brief recap of last year's HM: 13:20 per mile pace with a 173 bpm Avg HR (198 bpm Max HR at the finish line). My training went pretty well over the summer, but my running schedule went a bit haywire after the school year resumed. I never covered more than 10 miles in my inconsistent training, so the last few miles of the race should be fun.
I plan on signing up with one of the member's of the pace team, but I'm debating which pace to shoot for. The pacer choices in the approximate vicinity of my expected race pace are:
11:26, 10:41, 10:18, 9:55, 9:33, 9:10, and 8:58.
A sampling of some of my recent runs include:
- 1.0 mile, 8:42 pace, 168 bpm (HRZ 7)
- 3.6 miles, 10:43 pace, 146 bpm (HRZ 3)
- 3.7 miles, 11:06 pace, 147 bpm (HRZ 3)
- 6.5 miles, 12:58 pace, 137 bpm (HRZ 2)
- 5.0 miles, 13:28 pace, 133 bpm (HRZ 1)
- 8.0 miles, 13:29 pace, 142 bpm (HRZ 2)
Based on my test run HR and speed zones, I would expect to have a pace of 10:24 to 9:58 and a HR range of 155 to 159. One of the online calculators predicts a 10:26 pace based on my last 1 mile time.
The prudent thing to do would be signing up with the 11:26 pacer. Based on the calculators, perhaps I should sign up with the 10:18 pacer. That said, the 9:55 pacer and the allure of trying for a sub-10:00 mile is oh-so tempting.